Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman

Data as of: 2026-06-02 02:00:37 UTC Historical As-of 2026-03-28

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Fundora vs Thurman 28 Mar 2026 Result: Fundora Historical Pick 83.29% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Sebastian Fundora (TKO)

Model pick Sebastian Fundora 83.29%

Prediction result Correct

Fundora odds 1.3390

Thurman odds 4.0000

Fundora implied 74.68%

Thurman implied 25.00%

Pick odds 1.339

Pick implied 74.68%

Expected return 1.1152

ROI 11.52%

Edge 8.61%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-21 18:57:07 UTC

Fighter details

Sebastian Fundora

Score 68.83 · 24-1-1 (16 KO)

Full name Sebastian Alexander Fundora

Age 28 · Rank #95 · Confidence Medium 0.667

Stance Southpaw · H/R 197cm / 203cm · US

WBC Super welterweight

Keith Thurman

Score 64.66 · 31-2-0 (23 KO)

Full name Keith Fitzgerald Thurman Jr.

Age 37 · Rank #217 · Confidence Medium 0.666

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 175cm · US

Sebastian Fundora

Full name: Sebastian Alexander Fundora
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #95
Current model score: 68.83
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.667
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 197cm / 203cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 24-1-1 (16 KO)

World titles

WBC Super welterweight

28 Mar 2026

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Fundora

Historical

83% Fundora

17% Thurman

Fight result: Sebastian Fundora (TKO)
Model pick: Sebastian Fundora 83.29%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 83.29%
Market odds: 1.339
Implied probability: 74.68%
Expected ROI (1u): 11.52%
Value edge: 8.61%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-21 18:57:07 UTC

Keith Thurman

Full name: Keith Fitzgerald Thurman Jr.
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #217
Current model score: 64.66
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.666
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 171cm / 175cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 31-2-0 (23 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.0 Fundora Confidence High 0.810

83.0 Thurman Confidence High 0.780

Punching Accuracy

74.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.630

73.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.640

Hand Speed

70.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.580

74.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.620

Pace Pressure

88.0 Fundora Confidence High 0.840

61.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.660

Defensive Skill

60.0 Fundora Confidence High 0.760

68.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.670

Distance Footwork Control

72.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.650

71.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.650

Ring Iq Adaptability

79.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.730

75.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.690

Counter Punching

67.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.520

77.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.680

Chin

63.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.710

65.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.630

Cardio Engine

85.0 Fundora Confidence High 0.800

67.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.680

Style Profile Fundora: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher vs Thurman: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

34.0 Fundora Confidence High 0.760

12.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.550

Out Boxer

17.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.630

22.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.720

Power Slugger

18.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.670

24.0 Thurman Confidence High 0.760

Boxer Puncher

24.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.730

34.0 Thurman Confidence High 0.830

Counter Puncher

7.0 Fundora Confidence Low 0.450

8.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.500

Stance Advantage Fundora Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Thurman Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

72.0 Fundora Confidence Medium 0.720

61.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

28.0 Fundora Confidence Low 0.350

39.0 Thurman Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Fundora

66.67 Thurman

Ko Rate Last 3

100 Fundora

33.33 Thurman

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Fundora

33.33 Thurman

Opponent Rating Last 3

73.49 Fundora

65.95 Thurman

Trend Score Last 5

85 Fundora

60 Thurman

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Fundora

81.67 Thurman

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Fundora

53.33 Thurman

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Fundora

33.33 Thurman

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

73.49 Fundora

65.95 Thurman

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

92.5 Fundora

80 Thurman

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Fundora stays in class.

Thurman stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Fundora height: 197.0cm reach: 203.0cm

Thurman height: 171.0cm reach: 175.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Fundora.

Advantage: Fundora +54.0cm

Stance Interaction

Fundora vs orthodox: 72.0

Thurman vs southpaw: 39.0

Interaction: medium advantage Fundora.

Advantage: Fundora

Style Interaction

Fundora style: Pressure Swarmer

Thurman style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral