Masamichi Yabuki vs Miel Fajardo

Data as of: 2026-10-30 07:59:08 UTC Locked prediction As of 2026-10-30 07:17:47 UTC

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Yabuki vs Fajardo 26 Nov 2026 Model pick: Yabuki Locked prediction 59.50% ROI: -29.69% Flyweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Masamichi Yabuki 59.50%

Yabuki odds 1.1818

Fajardo odds 4.6000

Yabuki implied 84.62%

Fajardo implied 21.74%

Market odds 1.1818

Implied probability 84.62%

Expected return 0.7031

ROI -29.69%

Edge -25.12%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Titles on line

IBF

Flyweight Championship

Locked prediction as of 2026-10-30 07:17:47 UTC

Fighter details

Masamichi Yabuki

Score 69.89 · 20-4-0 (18 KO)

Full name Masamichi Yabuki

Age 34 · Rank #122 · Confidence Medium 0.630

Stance Orthodox · H/R 166cm / 164cm · JP

IBF Flyweight

Miel Fajardo

Score 59.88 · 14-3-2 (12 KO)

Full name Miel Balinton Fajardo

Age 26 · Rank #503 · Confidence Low 0.494

Stance Orthodox · H/R 163cm / 165cm · PH

Masamichi Yabuki

Full name: Masamichi Yabuki
Age: 34
Fighter rank: #122
Current model score: 69.89
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.630
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 166cm / 164cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 20-4-0 (18 KO)

World titles

IBF Flyweight

26 Nov 2026

Projected Win Split

Model pick

Yabuki

Locked prediction

59% Yabuki

41% Fajardo

Titles on line

IBF

Flyweight Championship

Model pick: Masamichi Yabuki 59.50%
Win probability: 59.50%
Market odds: 1.1818
Implied probability: 84.62%
Expected ROI (1u): -29.69%
Value edge: -25.12%
Lean assessment: No Value

Locked prediction as of 2026-10-30 07:17:47 UTC

Miel Fajardo

Full name: Miel Balinton Fajardo
Age: 26
Fighter rank: #503
Current model score: 59.88
Fighter confidence: Low 0.494
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 163cm / 165cm
Nationality: PH
Career snapshot: 14-3-2 (12 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

90.0 Yabuki Confidence High 0.860

84.0 Fajardo Confidence High 0.770

Punching Accuracy

78.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.680

70.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.460

Hand Speed

74.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.570

74.0 Fajardo Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

82.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.720

72.0 Fajardo Confidence Medium 0.540

Defensive Skill

63.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.650

60.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.420

Distance Footwork Control

67.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.560

61.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.410

Ring IQ Adaptability

77.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.670

64.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.450

Counter Punching

71.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.530

62.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.350

Chin

61.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.710

76.0 Fajardo Confidence Medium 0.620

Cardio Engine

84.0 Yabuki Confidence High 0.760

68.0 Fajardo Confidence Medium 0.550

Style Profile Yabuki: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher vs Fajardo: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

22.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.530

18.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.480

Out-Boxer

10.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.500

10.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.420

Power Slugger

38.0 Yabuki Confidence High 0.760

43.0 Fajardo Confidence High 0.790

Boxer-Puncher

24.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.610

24.0 Fajardo Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter-Puncher

6.0 Yabuki Confidence Low 0.380

5.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.290

Stance Interaction Yabuki vs orthodox · Fajardo vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.610

68.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.380

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Yabuki Confidence Medium 0.610

32.0 Fajardo Confidence Low 0.380

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Yabuki

100 Fajardo

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Yabuki

66.67 Fajardo

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Yabuki

33.33 Fajardo

Opponent Rating Last 3

59.5 Yabuki

47.67 Fajardo

Trend Score Last 5

100 Yabuki

80 Fajardo

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Yabuki

100 Fajardo

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

71.43 Yabuki

66.67 Fajardo

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Yabuki

33.33 Fajardo

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

59.5 Yabuki

48.55 Fajardo

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Yabuki

85.63 Fajardo

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Yabuki stays in class.

Fajardo stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Yabuki height: 166.0cm reach: 164.0cm

Fajardo height: 163.0cm reach: 165.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Yabuki.

Advantage: Yabuki +2.0cm

Stance Interaction

Yabuki vs orthodox: 42.0

Fajardo vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: medium advantage Fajardo.

Advantage: Fajardo

Style Interaction

Yabuki style: Power Slugger

Fajardo style: Power Slugger

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral