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Zerafa vs Ortiz 12 Aug 2026 Result: Zerafa Time-safe result Pick 75.65% Prediction: Correct Middleweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Michael Zerafa

Pre-fight pick Michael Zerafa 75.65%

Prediction result Correct

Zerafa odds 1.0769

Ortiz odds 6.8000

Zerafa implied 92.86%

Ortiz implied 14.71%

Pre-fight odds 1.0769

Pre-fight implied 92.86%

Expected return 0.8147

ROI -18.53%

Edge -17.21%

Lean No Value

Bout Time-safe result

Pre-fight prediction locked 2026-07-19 02:13:05 UTC

Fighter details
MZ
Michael Zerafa

Score 57.09 · 32-5-0 (20 KO)

Full name Michael Zerafa

Age 34 · Rank #506 · Confidence Medium 0.570

Stance Orthodox · H/R 177cm / 182cm · AU

AO
Alejandro Ortiz

Score 44.78 · 25-1-0 (0 KO)

Full name Alejandro Jose Ortiz

Age 25 · Rank #713 · Confidence Low 0.282

Stance N/A · H/R 176cm / 178cm · VE

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

74.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.700

69.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.390

Punching Accuracy

67.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.550

61.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.270

Hand Speed

66.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.500

63.0 Ortiz Confidence Very Low 0.240

Pace Pressure

69.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.600

66.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.330

Defensive Skill

58.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.650

54.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.350

Distance Footwork Control

61.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.550

58.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.250

Ring IQ Adaptability

64.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.600

57.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.300

Counter Punching

68.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.550

55.0 Ortiz Confidence Very Low 0.200

Chin

54.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.700

52.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.360

Cardio Engine

65.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.600

59.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.280

Style Profile Zerafa: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Ortiz: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Zerafa Confidence Low 0.350

20.0 Ortiz Confidence Very Low 0.240

Out-Boxer

20.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.520

14.0 Ortiz Confidence Very Low 0.180

Power Slugger

18.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.500

18.0 Ortiz Confidence Very Low 0.220

Boxer-Puncher

38.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.680

30.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.310

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Zerafa Confidence Low 0.280

18.0 Ortiz Confidence Very Low 0.170

Stance Interaction Zerafa vs unknown stance  ·  Ortiz vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

67.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.680

62.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.350

Vs Southpaw

33.0 Zerafa Confidence Medium 0.680

38.0 Ortiz Confidence Low 0.350

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Zerafa

33.33 Ortiz

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Zerafa

33.33 Ortiz

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Zerafa

66.67 Ortiz

Opponent Rating Last 3

56.88 Zerafa

65.08 Ortiz

Trend Score Last 5

80 Zerafa

33.33 Ortiz

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

77.62 Zerafa

33.33 Ortiz

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

43.81 Zerafa

33.33 Ortiz

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Zerafa

66.67 Ortiz

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

56.88 Zerafa

65.08 Ortiz

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Zerafa

33.33 Ortiz

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Zerafa stays in class.

Ortiz stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Zerafa height: 177.0cm reach: 182.0cm

Ortiz height: 176.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Zerafa.

Advantage: Zerafa +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Zerafa vs unknown stance: N/A

Ortiz vs orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Zerafa style: Boxer Puncher

Ortiz style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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