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Russell vs Santillan 23 Aug 2026 Model pick: Russell Locked prediction 64.91% ROI: 40.20% Super bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Gary Russell 64.91%

Russell odds 2.1600

Santillan odds 1.6494

Russell implied 46.30%

Santillan implied 60.63%

Market odds 2.16

Implied probability 46.30%

Expected return 1.4020

ROI 40.20%

Edge 18.61%

Lean Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-31 11:57:47 UTC

Fighter details
GR
Gary Russell

Score 66.59 · 21-1-0 (13 KO)

Full name Gary Antonio Russell

Age 33 · Rank #191 · Confidence Medium 0.583

Stance Southpaw · H/R 170cm / 170cm · US

Victor Santillan
Victor Santillan

Score 61.33 · 16-2-0 (7 KO)

Full name Victor Daniel Santillán Pérez

Age 31 · Rank #363 · Confidence Low 0.482

Stance Southpaw · H/R 166cm / 166cm · DO

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

78.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.730

66.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.630

Punching Accuracy

74.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.580

70.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.480

Hand Speed

81.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.630

72.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.410

Pace Pressure

69.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.550

69.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.460

Defensive Skill

77.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.660

67.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.450

Distance Footwork Control

79.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.640

71.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.470

Ring IQ Adaptability

76.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.620

73.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.520

Counter Punching

75.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.570

68.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.380

Chin

72.0 Russell Confidence Low 0.490

74.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.500

Cardio Engine

74.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.590

76.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.620

Style Profile Russell: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Santillan: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Russell Confidence Low 0.400

14.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.300

Out-Boxer

24.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.560

33.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.550

Power Slugger

16.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.550

10.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.450

Boxer-Puncher

34.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.680

36.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.620

Counter-Puncher

14.0 Russell Confidence Low 0.340

7.0 Santillan Confidence Very Low 0.200

Stance Interaction Russell vs southpaw  ·  Santillan vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.660

62.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.580

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.660

38.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.580

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Opponent Rating Last 3

56.83 Russell

53.59 Santillan

Trend Score Last 5

80 Russell

70 Santillan

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Russell

80 Santillan

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

48.25 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

56.83 Russell

53.59 Santillan

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Russell

85 Santillan

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Russell moves up 1 class.

Santillan stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Santillan.

Advantage: Santillan

Height Reach Delta

Russell height: 170.0cm reach: 170.0cm

Santillan height: 166.0cm reach: 166.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Russell.

Advantage: Russell +8.0cm

Stance Interaction

Russell vs southpaw: 38.0

Santillan vs southpaw: 38.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Russell style: Boxer Puncher

Santillan style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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