MATCHUP ENGINE

Álvarez vs Berlanga 14 Sep 2024 Winner: Barragán 89.17% ROI: -4.47%

Change fighters and profiles

Result details

Odds 1.0714

Implied 93.34%

Edge -4.17%

Lean No Value

2026-03-23 16:20:49 UTC

Fighter details

Canelo Álvarez

Score 77.15 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Age 35 · Rank #5 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Edgar Berlanga

Score 50.82 · 23-2-0 (18 KO)

Age 28 · Rank #2 · Confidence Medium 0.546

Stance Orthodox · H/R 185cm / 185cm · US

Canelo Álvarez

Age: 35
Fighter rank: #5
Current model score: 77.15
Fighter confidence: High 0.774
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 171cm / 179cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 63-3-2 (39 KO)

14 Sep 2024

Projected Win Split

Winner

Barragán

89% Álvarez

11% Berlanga

Win probability: 89.17%
Market odds: 1.0714
Implied probability: 93.34%
Expected ROI (1u): -4.47%
Value edge: -4.17%
Lean assessment: No Value

2026-03-23 16:20:49 UTC

Edgar Berlanga

Age: 28
Fighter rank: #2
Current model score: 50.82
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.546
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 185cm / 185cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 23-2-0 (18 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Profile source: Álvarez FiteQuant · Berlanga FiteQuant

Punching Power

83.7 · Álvarez · Conf High

84.5 · Berlanga · Conf High

Punching Accuracy

88.0 · Álvarez · Conf High

58.3 · Berlanga · Conf Medium

Hand Speed

84.8 · Álvarez · Conf High

66.2 · Berlanga · Conf Medium

Pace Pressure

76.2 · Álvarez · Conf High

49.7 · Berlanga · Conf Medium

Defensive Skill

88.4 · Álvarez · Conf High

55.1 · Berlanga · Conf Medium

Distance Footwork Control

85.2 · Álvarez · Conf High

52.0 · Berlanga · Conf Low

Ring Iq Adaptability

88.0 · Álvarez · Conf High

47.2 · Berlanga · Conf Medium

Counter Punching

88.6 · Álvarez · Conf High

50.4 · Berlanga · Conf Low

Chin

88.4 · Álvarez · Conf High

49.7 · Berlanga · Conf Medium

Cardio Engine

76.9 · Álvarez · Conf High

55.1 · Berlanga · Conf Medium

Style Profile

Álvarez: Boxer Puncher · Berlanga: Power Slugger

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 · Álvarez · Conf Medium

14.0 · Berlanga · Conf Low

Out Boxer

11.0 · Álvarez · Conf Medium

10.0 · Berlanga · Conf Low

Power Slugger

20.0 · Álvarez · Conf Medium

42.0 · Berlanga · Conf High

Boxer Puncher

37.0 · Álvarez · Conf High

28.0 · Berlanga · Conf Medium

Counter Puncher

18.0 · Álvarez · Conf Medium

6.0 · Berlanga · Conf Low

Stance Advantage

Álvarez: Vs Orthodox · Berlanga: Vs Orthodox

Vs Orthodox

58.0 · Álvarez · Conf High

72.0 · Berlanga · Conf Medium

Vs Southpaw

42.0 · Álvarez · Conf High

28.0 · Berlanga · Conf Low

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate (Last 3 Bouts): Win Rate Last 3

66.67 · Álvarez · Conf High

33.33 · Berlanga · Conf High

KO Rate (Last 3 Bouts): Ko Rate Last 3

0 · Álvarez · Conf High

33.33 · Berlanga · Conf High

Activity (% of Last 3 Bouts in Last 12 Months): Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 · Álvarez · Conf High

33.33 · Berlanga · Conf High

Opponent Rating (Last 3 Bouts): Opponent Rating Last 3

71.73 · Álvarez · Conf High

70.25 · Berlanga · Conf High

Trend Score (Last 5 Bouts): Trend Score Last 5

80 · Álvarez · Conf High

60 · Berlanga · Conf High

Win Rate (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.26 · Álvarez · Conf High

66.67 · Berlanga · Conf High

KO Rate (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30 · Álvarez · Conf High

55.3 · Berlanga · Conf High

Activity (% of Last 3 Bouts in Last 12 Months Relative): Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 · Álvarez · Conf High

33.33 · Berlanga · Conf High

Opponent Rating (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

71.73 · Álvarez · Conf High

70.25 · Berlanga · Conf High

Trend Score (Last 5 Bouts Relative): Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 · Álvarez · Conf High

80 · Berlanga · Conf High

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Álvarez stays in class.

Berlanga stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Reach vs Height Delta

Álvarez reach: 179.0cm height: 171.0cm delta: 8.0cm

Berlanga reach: 185.0cm height: 185.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Álvarez.

Stance Interaction

Álvarez advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Berlanga advantage against orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: low advantage Berlanga.

Style Interaction

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Berlanga style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Álvarez.