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Okolie vs Cieślak 27 Feb 2022 Winner: Cieślak 54.00% ROI: 277.98%

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Result details

Odds 7

Implied 14.29%

Edge 39.71%

Lean Value Bet

2026-03-23 16:23:16 UTC

Fighter details

Lawrence Okolie

Score 62.51 · 23-1-0 (17 KO)

Age 33 · Rank #1 · Confidence Medium 0.592

Stance Orthodox · H/R 196cm / 210cm · GB

Michał Cieślak

Score 65.98 · 28-2-0 (22 KO)

Age 36 · Rank #3 · Confidence Medium 0.566

Stance Orthodox · H/R 191cm / 201cm · PL

Lawrence Okolie

Age: 33
Fighter rank: #1
Current model score: 62.51
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.592
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 196cm / 210cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 23-1-0 (17 KO)

27 Feb 2022

Projected Win Split

Winner

Cieślak

46% Okolie

54% Cieślak

Win probability: 54.00%
Market odds: 7
Implied probability: 14.29%
Expected ROI (1u): 277.98%
Value edge: 39.71%
Lean assessment: Value Bet

2026-03-23 16:23:16 UTC

Michał Cieślak

Age: 36
Fighter rank: #3
Current model score: 65.98
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.566
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 191cm / 201cm
Nationality: PL
Career snapshot: 28-2-0 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Profile source: Okolie FiteQuant · Cieślak FiteQuant

Matchup weight class must be selected for cross-division custom matchups. Weight-class factor is currently neutral.

Punching Power

84.5 · Okolie · Conf High

90.8 · Cieślak · Conf High

Punching Accuracy

65.6 · Okolie · Conf Medium

74.7 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Hand Speed

58.9 · Okolie · Conf Medium

68.7 · Cieślak · Conf Low

Pace Pressure

46.8 · Okolie · Conf Medium

81.1 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Defensive Skill

56.6 · Okolie · Conf Medium

64.4 · Cieślak · Conf Low

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 · Okolie · Conf Medium

67.8 · Cieślak · Conf Low

Ring Iq Adaptability

67.3 · Okolie · Conf Medium

63.6 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Counter Punching

68.9 · Okolie · Conf Medium

67.6 · Cieślak · Conf Low

Chin

67.5 · Okolie · Conf Low

75.4 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Cardio Engine

64.5 · Okolie · Conf Medium

64.7 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Style Profile

Okolie: Boxer Puncher · Cieślak: Power Slugger

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 · Okolie · Conf Low

18.0 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Out Boxer

29.0 · Okolie · Conf Medium

12.0 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Power Slugger

23.0 · Okolie · Conf Medium

34.0 · Cieślak · Conf High

Boxer Puncher

34.0 · Okolie · Conf High

28.0 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Counter Puncher

6.0 · Okolie · Conf Low

8.0 · Cieślak · Conf Low

Stance Advantage

Okolie: Vs Southpaw · Cieślak: Vs Orthodox

Vs Orthodox

38.0 · Okolie · Conf Medium

64.0 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Vs Southpaw

62.0 · Okolie · Conf Medium

36.0 · Cieślak · Conf Medium

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate (Last 3 Bouts): Win Rate Last 3

100 · Okolie · Conf High

100 · Cieślak · Conf High

KO Rate (Last 3 Bouts): Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 · Okolie · Conf High

100 · Cieślak · Conf High

Activity (% of Last 3 Bouts in Last 12 Months): Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 · Okolie · Conf High

33.33 · Cieślak · Conf High

Opponent Rating (Last 3 Bouts): Opponent Rating Last 3

50.33 · Okolie · Conf High

44.67 · Cieślak · Conf High

Trend Score (Last 5 Bouts): Trend Score Last 5

85 · Okolie · Conf High

100 · Cieślak · Conf High

Win Rate (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 · Okolie · Conf High

100 · Cieślak · Conf High

KO Rate (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

69.05 · Okolie · Conf High

100 · Cieślak · Conf High

Activity (% of Last 3 Bouts in Last 12 Months Relative): Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 · Okolie · Conf High

33.33 · Cieślak · Conf High

Opponent Rating (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

51.41 · Okolie · Conf High

46.27 · Cieślak · Conf High

Trend Score (Last 5 Bouts Relative): Trend Score Last 5 Relative

92.5 · Okolie · Conf High

100 · Cieślak · Conf High

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Okolie stays in class.

Cieślak moves up 2 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Reach vs Height Delta

Okolie reach: 210.0cm height: 196.0cm delta: 14.0cm

Cieślak reach: 201.0cm height: 191.0cm delta: 10.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Okolie.

Stance Interaction

Okolie advantage against southpaw: 62.0

Cieślak advantage against orthodox: 64.0

Interaction: medium advantage Cieślak.

Style Interaction

Okolie style: Boxer Puncher

Cieślak style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Okolie.