MATCHUP ENGINE

Dorticos vs Briedis 26 Sep 2020 Winner: Pao 55.97% ROI: 45.53%

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Result details

Odds 2.6

Implied 38.46%

Edge 17.51%

Lean Value Bet

2026-03-23 16:24:21 UTC

Fighter details

Yuniel Dorticos

Score 59.30 · 27-3-0 (25 KO)

Age 40 · Rank #1 · Confidence Medium 0.658

Stance Orthodox · H/R 191cm / 203cm · CU

Mairis Briedis

Score 65.70 · 28-3-0 (20 KO)

Age 41 · Rank #2 · Confidence Medium 0.666

Stance Orthodox · H/R 186cm / 190cm · N/A

Yuniel Dorticos

Age: 40
Fighter rank: #1
Current model score: 59.30
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.658
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 191cm / 203cm
Nationality: CU
Career snapshot: 27-3-0 (25 KO)

26 Sep 2020

Projected Win Split

Winner

Pao

56% Dorticos

44% Briedis

Win probability: 55.97%
Market odds: 2.6
Implied probability: 38.46%
Expected ROI (1u): 45.53%
Value edge: 17.51%
Lean assessment: Value Bet

2026-03-23 16:24:21 UTC

Mairis Briedis

Age: 41
Fighter rank: #2
Current model score: 65.70
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.666
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 186cm / 190cm
Nationality: N/A
Career snapshot: 28-3-0 (20 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Profile source: Dorticos FiteQuant · Briedis FiteQuant

Punching Power

91.9 · Dorticos · Conf High

78.5 · Briedis · Conf High

Punching Accuracy

66.1 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

68.5 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Hand Speed

68.1 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

66.5 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Pace Pressure

56.9 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

54.0 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Defensive Skill

56.3 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

86.8 · Briedis · Conf High

Distance Footwork Control

58.3 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

78.5 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Ring Iq Adaptability

58.0 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

84.9 · Briedis · Conf High

Counter Punching

69.8 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

85.8 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Chin

67.6 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

91.2 · Briedis · Conf High

Cardio Engine

57.7 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

74.6 · Briedis · Conf High

Style Profile

Dorticos: Power Slugger · Briedis: Boxer Puncher

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

15.0 · Briedis · Conf Low

Out Boxer

8.0 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

18.0 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Power Slugger

45.0 · Dorticos · Conf High

24.0 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Boxer Puncher

25.0 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

31.0 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Counter Puncher

8.0 · Dorticos · Conf Low

12.0 · Briedis · Conf Low

Stance Advantage

Dorticos: Vs Orthodox · Briedis: Vs Southpaw

Vs Orthodox

72.0 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

42.0 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Vs Southpaw

28.0 · Dorticos · Conf Medium

58.0 · Briedis · Conf Medium

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate (Last 3 Bouts): Win Rate Last 3

66.67 · Dorticos · Conf High

33.33 · Briedis · Conf High

KO Rate (Last 3 Bouts): Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 · Dorticos · Conf High

0 · Briedis · Conf High

Activity (% of Last 3 Bouts in Last 12 Months): Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 · Dorticos · Conf High

0 · Briedis · Conf High

Opponent Rating (Last 3 Bouts): Opponent Rating Last 3

54.63 · Dorticos · Conf High

73.02 · Briedis · Conf High

Trend Score (Last 5 Bouts): Trend Score Last 5

60 · Dorticos · Conf High

60 · Briedis · Conf High

Win Rate (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Win Rate Last 3 Relative

79.63 · Dorticos · Conf High

64.88 · Briedis · Conf High

KO Rate (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

75.93 · Dorticos · Conf High

0 · Briedis · Conf High

Activity (% of Last 3 Bouts in Last 12 Months Relative): Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 · Dorticos · Conf High

0 · Briedis · Conf High

Opponent Rating (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

54.63 · Dorticos · Conf High

73.02 · Briedis · Conf High

Trend Score (Last 5 Bouts Relative): Trend Score Last 5 Relative

70 · Dorticos · Conf High

70 · Briedis · Conf High

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Dorticos stays in class.

Briedis stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Reach vs Height Delta

Dorticos reach: 203.0cm height: 191.0cm delta: 12.0cm

Briedis reach: 190.0cm height: 186.0cm delta: 4.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Dorticos.

Stance Interaction

Dorticos advantage against orthodox: 72.0

Briedis advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: medium advantage Dorticos.

Style Interaction

Dorticos style: Power Slugger

Briedis style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: medium advantage Briedis.