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Makabu vs Papin 24 Aug 2019 Winner: Papin 58.37% ROI: 19.65%

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Result details

Odds 2.05

Implied 48.78%

Edge 9.59%

Lean Value Bet

2026-03-23 16:24:59 UTC

Fighter details

Ilunga Makabu

Score 46.65 · 30-4-0 (26 KO)

Age 38 · Rank #5 · Confidence Medium 0.591

Stance Southpaw · H/R 183cm / 188cm · ZA

Alexei Papin

Score 62.68 · 18-1-0 (17 KO)

Age 38 · Rank #7 · Confidence Medium 0.519

Stance Orthodox · H/R 185cm / N/A · RU

Ilunga Makabu

Age: 38
Fighter rank: #5
Current model score: 46.65
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.591
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 183cm / 188cm
Nationality: ZA
Career snapshot: 30-4-0 (26 KO)

24 Aug 2019

Projected Win Split

Winner

Papin

42% Makabu

58% Papin

Win probability: 58.37%
Market odds: 2.05
Implied probability: 48.78%
Expected ROI (1u): 19.65%
Value edge: 9.59%
Lean assessment: Value Bet

2026-03-23 16:24:59 UTC

Alexei Papin

Age: 38
Fighter rank: #7
Current model score: 62.68
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.519
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 185cm / N/A
Nationality: RU
Career snapshot: 18-1-0 (17 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Profile source: Makabu FiteQuant · Papin FiteQuant

Matchup weight class must be selected for cross-division custom matchups. Weight-class factor is currently neutral.

Punching Power

87.4 · Makabu · Conf High

84.5 · Papin · Conf High

Punching Accuracy

49.4 · Makabu · Conf Medium

71.5 · Papin · Conf Medium

Hand Speed

44.2 · Makabu · Conf Low

67.7 · Papin · Conf Low

Pace Pressure

54.3 · Makabu · Conf Medium

72.1 · Papin · Conf Medium

Defensive Skill

43.9 · Makabu · Conf Medium

63.6 · Papin · Conf Low

Distance Footwork Control

44.2 · Makabu · Conf Medium

63.8 · Papin · Conf Low

Ring Iq Adaptability

51.4 · Makabu · Conf Medium

62.3 · Papin · Conf Medium

Counter Punching

46.8 · Makabu · Conf Low

64.3 · Papin · Conf Low

Chin

45.9 · Makabu · Conf Medium

76.0 · Papin · Conf Medium

Cardio Engine

45.0 · Makabu · Conf Medium

56.6 · Papin · Conf Medium

Style Profile

Makabu: Power Slugger · Papin: Power Slugger

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 · Makabu · Conf Medium

12.0 · Papin · Conf Low

Out Boxer

8.0 · Makabu · Conf Low

6.0 · Papin · Conf Low

Power Slugger

42.0 · Makabu · Conf High

48.0 · Papin · Conf High

Boxer Puncher

24.0 · Makabu · Conf Medium

26.0 · Papin · Conf Medium

Counter Puncher

8.0 · Makabu · Conf Low

8.0 · Papin · Conf Low

Stance Advantage

Makabu: Vs Orthodox · Papin: Vs Orthodox

Vs Orthodox

68.0 · Makabu · Conf Medium

58.0 · Papin · Conf Medium

Vs Southpaw

32.0 · Makabu · Conf Medium

42.0 · Papin · Conf Medium

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate (Last 3 Bouts): Win Rate Last 3

33.33 · Makabu · Conf High

100 · Papin · Conf High

KO Rate (Last 3 Bouts): Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 · Makabu · Conf High

100 · Papin · Conf High

Activity (% of Last 3 Bouts in Last 12 Months): Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 · Makabu · Conf High

0 · Papin · Conf High

Opponent Rating (Last 3 Bouts): Opponent Rating Last 3

64.45 · Makabu · Conf High

52.67 · Papin · Conf High

Trend Score (Last 5 Bouts): Trend Score Last 5

60 · Makabu · Conf High

100 · Papin · Conf High

Win Rate (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Win Rate Last 3 Relative

63.44 · Makabu · Conf High

100 · Papin · Conf High

KO Rate (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

56.99 · Makabu · Conf High

100 · Papin · Conf High

Activity (% of Last 3 Bouts in Last 12 Months Relative): Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 · Makabu · Conf High

0 · Papin · Conf High

Opponent Rating (Last 3 Bouts Relative): Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

64.45 · Makabu · Conf High

52.67 · Papin · Conf High

Trend Score (Last 5 Bouts Relative): Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 · Makabu · Conf High

100 · Papin · Conf High

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Makabu stays in class.

Papin moves up 2 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Reach vs Height Delta

Makabu reach: 188.0cm height: 183.0cm delta: 5.0cm

Papin reach: N/A height: 185.0cm delta: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Stance Interaction

Makabu advantage against orthodox: 68.0

Papin advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: medium advantage Makabu.

Style Interaction

Makabu style: Power Slugger

Papin style: Power Slugger

Interaction: No advantage.